Can Sudan Overcome its Statistical Tragedy
Author(s)
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Abstract
It is a tragedy that Sudan that needs data the most is least likely to have it. Population censuses are out of date, and poverty estimates are infrequent and incomparable over time and, hence, of limited use. We cannot be sure of what happened to poverty between 2009 and 2014; a period characterized by meager or even negative economic growth. Timely, accurate, granular, and accessible data provides the foundation for evidence base policymaking, particularly in Sudan’s context characterized by conflict, stagnant economic growth, high poverty, and low social indicators. Inadequate funding, weak capacity, and a lack of coordination of statistical activities are argued to be behind Sudan’s statistical tragedy. But the underlying cause is political; low level of funding and statistical capacity are the consequences of a lack of political support for quality statistics. Statistics unsuitable to political leaders’ goals are altered, delayed, or that choices are made between conflicting estimates on political grounds, limiting the demand for quality data. In turn the lack of demand for data lead to fewer resources available for data production. As part of the ongoing transition process and as a key input to sensitive electoral, peace and resource sharing negotiations, the conduct of a census/survey is a politically sensitive exercise, particularly in a setting such as Sudan. However, promoting greater openness and transparency of data as a pathway to mitigate political .economy constraints and raising the public profile for statistics may help Sudan overcome its statistical tragedy
Keywords
JEL Codes: C81, O47, O55
Keywords: Sudan, population census, household survey, poverty, statistics, tragedy, evidence base
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