History of the Efficient Market Hypothesis

Author(s)

Thian Cheng Lim , Xiu Yun Lim , Riuyang Zhai ,

Download Full PDF Pages: 26-33 | Views: 425 | Downloads: 101 | DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3401895

Volume 1 - November 2012 (11)

Abstract

This paper reviews and summarizes the work of Sewell (2011). The purpose is to investigate the evolution and development of the Efficient Market Hypothesis from its inception as theory of probability to Fama (1965) proposition and revision (Fama, 1970; 1991). It discusses the random walk theory and reports the various research papers that have been written on the subject. This paper also clarifies the debate on the validity of EMH and explains the importance of EMH to finance theory. 

Keywords

EMH, history, EMH – Efficient market hypothesis

References

                 i.            Alexander, S. S. (1961), Price movements in speculative markets: Trends or random walks, Industrial Management Review 2(2), 7–26.

       ii.            Alexander, S. S. (1964), Price movements in speculative markets: Trends or random walks, no. 2, Industrial Management Review 5(2), 25–46.

      iii.            Berger, J. M. and Mandelbrot, B. (1963), A new model for error clustering in telephone circuits, IBM Journal of Research and Development 7(3), 224–236.

     iv.            Bernstein, P. L. (1992), Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street, The Free Press, New York.

       v.            Cootner, P. H. (1962), Stock prices: Random vs. systematic changes, Industrial Management Review 3(2), 24–45.

     vi.            Cootner, P. H. (ed.) (1964), The Random Character of Stock Market Prices, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.

    vii.            Cowles, 3rd, A. (1933), Can stock market forecasters forecast?, Econometrica 1(3), 309–324.

  viii.            Cowles, 3rd, A. and Jones, H. E. (1937), Some a posteriori probabilities in stock market action, Econometrica 5(3), 280– 294.

     ix.            Cowles, A. (1944), Stock market forecasting, Econometrica 12(3/4), 206–214.

       x.            Cowles, A. (1960), A revision of previous conclusions regarding stock price behavior, Econometrica 28(4), 909–915.

     xi.            Einstein, A. (1905), U¨ ber die von der molekularkinetischen Theorie der Wa¨rme geforderte Bewegung von in ruhenden Fl¨ussigkeiten suspendierten Teilchen, Annalen der Physik 322(8), 549–560.

    xii.            Fama, E. F. (1963), Mandelbrot and the stable paretian hypothesis, The Journal of Business 36(4), 420–429.

  xiii.            Fama, E. F. (1965a), Random walks in stock market prices, Financial Analysts Journal 21(5), 55–59. Reprinted in 1995 as Random Walks in Stock Market Prices, Financial Analysts Journal 51(1), 75–80.

  xiv.            Fama, E. F. (1970), Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work, The Journal of Finance 25(2), 383–417.

   xv.            Fama, E. F. (1991), Efficient capital markets: II, The Journal of Finance 46(5), 1575–1617.

  xvi.            Godfrey, M. D., Granger, C.W. J. and Morgenstern, O. (1964), The random walk hypothesis of stock market behavior, Kyklos 17(1), 1– 30.

xvii.            Granger, C.W. J. and Morgenstern, O. (1963). Spectral analysis of New York stock market prices, Kyklos 16(1), 1–27. Reprinted in The Random Character of Stock Market Prices, edited by P. H. Cootner, The MIT Press, 1964.

xviii.            Harry, V. R. (1959), Stock-market “patterns” and financial analysis: Methodological suggestions, The Journal of Finance 14(1), 1–10.

  xix.            Houthakker, H. S. (1961), Systematic and random elements in short-term price movements, The American Economic Review 51(2), 164–172.

   xx.            Kendall, M. G. (1953), The analysis of economic time-series— Part I: Prices, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General) 116(1), 11–25.

  xxi.            Keynes, J. M. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Macmillan, London.

xxii.            Larson, A. B. (1960), Measurement of a random process in futures prices, Food Research Institute Studies 1(3), 313–24.

xxiii.            MacCauley, F. R. (1925), Forecasting security prices, Journal of the American Statistical Association 20(150), 244–249.

xxiv.            Malkiel, B. G. (1973), A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Norton, New York.

xxv.            Malkiel, B. G. (2003), The efficient market hypothesis and its critics, The Journal of Economic Perspectives 17(1), 59–82.

xxvi.            Mandelbrot, B. (1962), The variation of certain speculative prices, Research Note NC-87, IBM.

xxvii.            Mandelbrot, B. (1963), The variation of certain speculative prices, The Journal of Business 36(4), 394–419.

xxviii.            Mandelbrot, B. B. and Hudson, R. L. (2004), The (Mis)behaviour of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin, and Reward, Profile Books, London.

xxix.            Mills, F. C. (1927), The Behavior of Prices, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.

xxx.            Modigliani, F., & Miller, M. H. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance and the

xxxi.            theory of investment. American Economic Review , 48 (3), pp. 261-97.

xxxii.            Moore, A. B. (1962), A Statistical Analysis of Common Stock Prices, PhD thesis, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.

xxxiii.            Muth, J. F. (1961), Rational expectations and the theory of price movements, Econometrica 29(3), 315–335.

xxxiv.            Olivier, M. (1926), Les Nombres Indices de la Variation des Prix, PhD thesis, University of Paris, Paris.

xxxv.            Osborne, M. F. M. (1959), Brownian motion in the stock market, Operations Research 7(2), 145–73.

xxxvi.            Ore, Oystein, Cardano: The Gambling Scholar (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1953), 143.

xxxvii.            Osborne, M. F. M. (1962), Periodic structure in the Brownian motion of stock prices, Operations Research 10(3), 345–379.

xxxviii.            Pearson, K. (1905), The problem of the random walk, Nature 72(1865), 294.

xxxix.            Regnault, J. (1863), Calcul des Chances et Philosophie de la Bourse, Mallet-Bachelier et Castel, Paris.

     xl.            Sharpe, W. F. (1964), Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk, The Journal of Finance 19(3), 425–442.

    xli.            Slutzky, E. (1937), The summation of random causes as the source of cyclic processes, Econometrica 5(2), 105–146. Translation of Russian original in Problems of Economic Conditions, vol. 3,

  xlii.            Steiger, W. (1964), A Test of Nonrandomness in Stock Price Changes, in P. H. Cootner (ed.), The random character of stock market prices, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, Chapter XII, pp.303–312.

 xliii.            Taqqu, M. S. (2001), Bachelier and his times: A conversation with Bernard Bru, Finance and Stochastics 5(1), 3–32.

xliv.            Treynor, J. L. (1962), Toward a theory of market value of risky assets, The first paper on CAPM, yet rarely cited and often incorrectly referred to as ‘Treynor (1961)’.

  xlv.            Working, H. (1934), A randomdifference series for use in the analysis of time series, Journal of the American Statistical Association 29(185), 11–24.

xlvi.            Working, H. (1949), The investigation of economic expectations, The American Economic Review 39(3), 150–166.

xlvii.            Working, H. (1958), A theory of anticipatory prices, The American Economic Review 48(2), 188–199.

xlviii.            Working, H. (1960), Note on the correlation of first differences of averages in a random chain, Econometrica 28(4), 916–918.

Cite this Article: